{"id":151,"date":"2020-05-07T16:08:06","date_gmt":"2020-05-07T19:08:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/pequenoprincipe.org.br\/newscovid19\/en\/?p=151"},"modified":"2020-05-11T12:51:04","modified_gmt":"2020-05-11T15:51:04","slug":"pequeno-principe-develops-a-tool-to-foresee-demand-for-icu-beds-in-coping-with-covid-19","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pequenoprincipe.org.br\/newscovid19\/en\/4\/pequeno-principe-develops-a-tool-to-foresee-demand-for-icu-beds-in-coping-with-covid-19\/","title":{"rendered":"Pequeno Pr\u00edncipe develops a tool to foresee demand for ICU beds in coping with COVID-19"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Predicting the number of ICU beds to assist children and adolescents who may need this kind of support in coping with COVID-19 has been a major challenge for health managers worldwide. At the Pequeno Pr\u00edncipe, the largest pediatric hospital in Brazil, the Quality Management Office developed a tool to foresee this need, considering the population of Curitiba (state of Paran\u00e1) and the Metropolitan Region, without leaving other patients who still need high complexity care unattended.

\u201cWe seek to create strategic intelligence to efficiently support the management of the Hospital, predicting the number of pediatric ICU beds that will be needed in our region and assisting in the construction of a consistent contingency plan for patient care, according to the bed occupation rate,\u201d explains the doctor coordinator of the Quality Department and the Clinical Research Center of Pequeno Pr\u00edncipe Hospital, F\u00e1bio Motta.

The executive director of the Hospital, Ety Cristina Forte Carneiro, says that the model was presented to municipal and state managers, to contribute to public management. \u201cIn our institution, we already have 68 ICU beds and we can quickly implant ten more, as we have enough room, equipment and teams. This tool also helped us to define the amount of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) and alcohol consumption, for example, needed for the peak moment,\u201d she exemplifies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Dynamic calculations<\/strong>
Considering the pace of the pandemic\u2019s evolution in Curitiba and the Metropolitan Region in the week of\u00a0May 4, projections on this date indicate that the peak\u00a0of COVID-19\u00a0should occur in July. The model take into consideration three scenario possibilities to calculate the number of patients and the need for beds. In the base scenario, each infected person is considered to infect two other people. In the conservative scenario, the contamination rate drops to 1.7 people and, in the more daring scenario, each infected person would infect three others.\u00a0

\u201cConsidering the base scenario \u2013 which has been shown to be the most appropriate for our region\u00a0\u2013, we estimate that the health system may need up to 30 pediatric ICU beds. In the worst case scenario, the need for ICU beds can reach 225. However, we emphasize,\u00a0once again,\u00a0that the model is dynamic, is associated with several factors \u2013\u00a0especially the practice of social distancing \u2013 and allows us to constantly review the path that the pandemic is taking in our region,\u201d\u00a0observes\u00a0Motta.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Model<\/strong>
The mathematical model used was the dynamic transmission SIR (Susceptible \u2013 Infected \u2013 Recovered), in accordance with the recommendations of the International Society of Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research and of the Society for Medical Decision Making (Pitman et al., 2012). \u201cIn the case of COVID-19 infection, we work with an epidemiological clinical logic that the population of susceptible people decreases and the one of recovered people increases as the pandemic advances. The infected population should show an increasing number of cases and, after reaching the peak, a decrease,\u201d highlights the leading pharmacist at the Quality Management Office, Lucas Okumura.

The graph below shows how the model works. The behavior of the yellow curve enables the prediction of critical points for the contingency plan, such as the speed of growth, the date and number of people infected at the epidemiological peak and the possible point of reduction of social distancing (on the blue curve). \u201cIn this way, we show scientific and assistance capacity to face the COVID-19, in addition to remaining active in other pediatric clinical conditions,\u201d reinforces Motta.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Based on mathematical modeling, instrument creates strategic intelligence to support Hospital management<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":150,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-151","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-8","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/pequenoprincipe.org.br\/newscovid19\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/151","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/pequenoprincipe.org.br\/newscovid19\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/pequenoprincipe.org.br\/newscovid19\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pequenoprincipe.org.br\/newscovid19\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pequenoprincipe.org.br\/newscovid19\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=151"}],"version-history":[{"count":26,"href":"https:\/\/pequenoprincipe.org.br\/newscovid19\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/151\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":241,"href":"https:\/\/pequenoprincipe.org.br\/newscovid19\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/151\/revisions\/241"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pequenoprincipe.org.br\/newscovid19\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/150"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/pequenoprincipe.org.br\/newscovid19\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=151"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pequenoprincipe.org.br\/newscovid19\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=151"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pequenoprincipe.org.br\/newscovid19\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=151"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}